Prospecting brown rust of sugarcane in São Paulo-Brazil under climate change scenarios

Climate change can cause significant shifts in the occurrence and severity of agricultural diseases, altering distribution phytosanitary problems with severe economic, social, environmental consequences. Despite their importance, these new geographic temporal distributions plant diseases still demand scrutiny. In present study, we prospect sugarcane brown rust (Puccinia melanocephala) considering average temperature relative humidity main producing region state São Paulo. The database was structured using GIS projections future climate provided by IPCC. Mathematical logic equations were defined applied to data humidity, resulting monthly maps favorability for disease. Prospective three periods (2011-2040, 2041-2070, 2071-2100) two greenhouse gas emission scenarios compared reference period (1961-1990). analysis considered months from December May. Our study shows a tendency decrease disease longer term (2071-2100), more noticeable scenario A2 than B1. These results suggest; however, that this demands attention management scenarios.